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Commercial Assessment (Buy-Side): Therapeutic

Buy-Side Market Assessment and Forecast for a Commercial Therapeutic


A major investor in the drug royalty sector sought an independent perspective on the commercial prospects for a recently launched therapeutic.

A major concern for the project was to assess whether the market potential for the drug was still sizeable given recent launch delays which were thought to have stemmed from corporate M&A activity. 


Conducted interviews and primary market research with dermatologists, plastic surgeons and patients to understand expected demand, uptake and concerns.

Conducted interviews with industry professionals to assess the impact of the M&A activity.

Developed a forecast model with sensitivity analyses to assess reasonableness of high, mid and low forecast scenarios.


We determined that demand would support the investment/forecasts in the near term and that the recent launch performance was influenced by corporate distractions.

Our findings were consistent with the investor’s perspectives and resulted in the investor acquiring the royalty.

The  sales performance over the next few quarters mapped to our salesforce rollout-model.

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